Hollywood
The Oscar race has cleared up over the past few days, with SAG and the BFCA announcing nominations for their respective awards programs (both considered dependable precursors for the Academy Awards). So while SAG threw more than a few curve balls our way in the various categories (um, Nicole Kidman?), there seem to be at least three things we can point to and say, “Yes, we know this to be true about the Oscar race.”
What, then, do we think we have learned?
1. We have four legitimate frontrunners for Best Picture
Four movies earned both BFCA nominations for Best Film and SAG nominations for Outstanding Cast (the equivalent of Best Film). They are “Argo,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” I’m comfortable saying that all four of those will earn Best Picture Oscar nods.
Now, which films will join them? More specifically, how many more films will join them? Oscar still remains fluid in terms of the number of slots it wants to fill in Best Picture. If I had to guess which other films will get into the Oscar race, I’d put money down on “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Life of Pi” and “Django Unchained.” After that, it becomes a question of how many movies the Academy wants to honor. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” could get in, as could “The Master” or “The Impossible.” Those last few slots are anyone’s game at the moment.
2. There are wildcards at play in the acting categories
Several names we expect to see: Denzel Washington for “Flight;” Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln;” Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook;” and Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables.” Then there are the names that have surprised us at both SAG and the Critics’ Choice. Will they hold on to this momentum and earn Oscar nods?
Here are the names that somewhat shocked me: Ann Dowd. Javier Bardem (in both groups). Naoimi Watts (in both groups), who is VERY deserving for “The Impossible,” but I wasn’t sure enough voters had seen the film. Matthew McConaughey. Nicole Kidman! Almost all are deserving of Oscar love, yet some are going to have to be left out when the Academy nominates. Who will get in? We shall see.
3. Some films are dying. Others are dead.
“Cloud Atlas” is a stunning piece of film making. It does not appear to be an Oscar contender. Neither is Gus Van Sant’s “The Promised Land,” which made no waves over the past 48 hours. “Anna Karenina” was largely ignored by the voting bodies. “The Hobbit” is not getting any momentum. And while “The Master” earned a few nods, it is not the Oscar powerhouse many thought it would be back in September, when critics fawned.
SAG Awards Analysis: 3 Things We Think We Know About The Oscar Race
What, then, do we think we have learned?
1. We have four legitimate frontrunners for Best Picture
Four movies earned both BFCA nominations for Best Film and SAG nominations for Outstanding Cast (the equivalent of Best Film). They are “Argo,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables” and “Silver Linings Playbook.” I’m comfortable saying that all four of those will earn Best Picture Oscar nods.
Now, which films will join them? More specifically, how many more films will join them? Oscar still remains fluid in terms of the number of slots it wants to fill in Best Picture. If I had to guess which other films will get into the Oscar race, I’d put money down on “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Life of Pi” and “Django Unchained.” After that, it becomes a question of how many movies the Academy wants to honor. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” could get in, as could “The Master” or “The Impossible.” Those last few slots are anyone’s game at the moment.
2. There are wildcards at play in the acting categories
Several names we expect to see: Denzel Washington for “Flight;” Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln;” Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook;” and Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables.” Then there are the names that have surprised us at both SAG and the Critics’ Choice. Will they hold on to this momentum and earn Oscar nods?
Here are the names that somewhat shocked me: Ann Dowd. Javier Bardem (in both groups). Naoimi Watts (in both groups), who is VERY deserving for “The Impossible,” but I wasn’t sure enough voters had seen the film. Matthew McConaughey. Nicole Kidman! Almost all are deserving of Oscar love, yet some are going to have to be left out when the Academy nominates. Who will get in? We shall see.
3. Some films are dying. Others are dead.
“Cloud Atlas” is a stunning piece of film making. It does not appear to be an Oscar contender. Neither is Gus Van Sant’s “The Promised Land,” which made no waves over the past 48 hours. “Anna Karenina” was largely ignored by the voting bodies. “The Hobbit” is not getting any momentum. And while “The Master” earned a few nods, it is not the Oscar powerhouse many thought it would be back in September, when critics fawned.
